Bordeaux 2021 Futures: To Buy Or Not To Buy? That Is The Question.
I’m writing this the night before the LCBO is about to open up the taps and let regular wine lovers in Ontario have at it and try to snap up some 2021 Bordeaux Futures. At 8:30am tomorrow morning (July 12th), the buying frenzy will start….or will it??
What is the big deal?
Traditionally, this time of year is one of much glee for Bordeaux lovers around the world. This is because Springtime brings Bordeaux’s “En Primeur” event to centre-stage. En Primeur is a multi-day tasting done on a grand scale, where the world’s best and brightest wine minds are brought to the Bordeaux region and given the opportunity to taste through loads and loads (I’ve heard of people tasting 600 or more samples!) of wine. They then write about it, rate it, talk about it….and Bordeaux lovers hang on tight as they watch to see what emerges.
The interesting part is that the wines that is being tasted, rated and talked about is wines that are still aging in barrel. To be sure, these wines are not yet ready to drink in the eyes of Bordeaux producers and rule-makers - the wine still needs time to develop into what it is meant to be - but that notwithstanding, the producers are ready to sell these wines as “futures”.
The concept here is relatively simple in my mind…..and here is my even more super-duper simple explanation of the futures phenomenon —> Wine takes time to be ready to bottle and sell. It also costs a fortune to make and age/cellar. Hence, producers want to recoup some money before they are ready to sell physical bottles of their prized liquid….and as a result, they sell “futures”…..or said differently, the right to bottles of wine once they are ready (in two or three years time).
If you’re thinking - “Hunh, why would anyone do that???” - you’re not alone. It didn’t make a whole lot of sense to me at one point in my wine journey either. But now it does, so allow me to continue my super-duper simple explanation.
Put simply, the incentive for the (potential) futures buyer is generally access to often-limited quantities of high end, highly prized wines, often at a discount to what retail prices will eventually be when these wines are available in the market (though not always - more on that in a moment). And the incentive for the sellers is of course that they get cash in hand, but also that they are guaranteed a set quantity of sales and can better predict cash flows and profits and the like. Futures are usually based on an allotment - producers do not sell everything they make through this vehicle, but rather, what they wish to sell this way. It is an economic decision.
Oh, and there are negociants and wine merchants in the middle of all of this……but now, this is getting technical….and this is supposed to be super simple. Ha!
Ok, so getting back to the story at hand….we have sellers of unbottled wine (producers), we have buyers who want this unbottled wine and we have a market mechanism (purchasing a future) that facilitates the transaction. And we have frenzied activity in most years, because getting your hands on Bordeaux futures is not for the faint of heart. As I said, they are usually available in limited quantities and one must move fast (in an open system such as the LCBO’s), be lucky (in a lottery system such as the SAQ’s) or be a long standing customer (in a system where you are dealing directly with a retailer that is not a government agency to gain access, for example in the U.K. or the U.S. to name a few).
But this year, things could very well be quite different. Maybe, just maybe, tomorrow morning there will be less frenzy on the LCBO website. The reason being, after a string of three highly acclaimed blockbuster vintages coming out of Bordeaux (i.e. 2018, 2019 and 2020), 2021 has had its challenges and knowledgeable people seem to be feeling less sure that this vintage is a sure bet. In fact, in doing my research, I’ve come across more than a few critics and writers who are saying that you need to pick carefully through this Futures cycle to find quality and that those buying for for investment purposes might find themselves with wines being delivered to them that are actually selling for less than they bought them for in futures.
To give you a sense of what the vintage was like, have a look at what the LCBO is saying on their website about it:
Our impressions of the vintage
The 2021 Bordeaux is evolving to be a complex and fascinating vintage. Despite the many challenges that the châteaux faced, the Bordelais were able to rise to the occasion and create a very good vintage. However, the story is not that simple. In fact, if there is a single defining element of the vintage it is likely its heterogeneousness of style, quality and volume. This story starts with the April frosts that devastated some, while many top terroirs were unaffected. Then came the mildew, which had a greater impact on yields for organic producers over conventional growers. The warm, cloudy summer allowed grapes to remain on vine well into September, but the crucial decision of when to pick, especially in the threat of heavy rains (which never materialized), impacted both style and quality. Christian Moueix produced outstanding wines across their entire stable, and wines on top of the plateau in Pomerol were also outstanding. Most of the Cabernet Sauvignon-dominant wines on the Left Bank are excellent, as are the Right Bank wines with significant quantities of Cabernet Franc. In short, it’s a year for the savvy shopper – and while you won’t see the homogeneous quality of a great vintage like 2010, there are outstanding wines, especially at the top end. (Source: LCBO)
As you can see, the LCBO is clearly signalling that if you pick the good examples, there is a lot of potential in this vintage….but you do have to be choosy. Based on my research, these thoughts are more or less highly consistent with those of the top critics and writers that cover Bordeaux and En Primeur/Futures, such as Wine Spectator, The Wine Cellar Insider (a personal favourite!) and Decanter. (Click the links to read these phenomenal and detailed reports in depth, if you are interested!)
What I Personally Think
So where does all of this leave me or you? Well, it might make sense to approach this round of Futures with caution, if you were thinking about participating. It might not be worth it to you to spend money upfront for wines that don’t quite meet your expectations, depending on whether you love bigger, riper Bordeaux. And if you are wanting to invest…well, this might not be the time, especially with the world being the way it is right now.
On the flip side however, I do like certain things about the 2021 Bordeaux Futures, as follows:
2021 is clearly an under-rated year and as it usually goes, the under-rated years are less expensive to buy and can contain some incredible gems and bargains.
2021 was a cooler vintage so alcohol levels will be much more restrained, as will the ripeness of the wines. I like this, because I like wines that are tense, austere and elegant.
2021 was a difficult vintage, which means that winemakers had to work their magic to make things sing. Real talent shines through in tough times like these :)
All told, I’m still on the fence. It will likely be a game-time decision as to whether I will buy anything or not….I might decide to take a pass, for a multitude of reasons including the general state of world affairs and my own affairs right now. But, in case you’re interested, here are a few wines that I think looks interesting in the pool of wines being offered tomorrow, based on my research, prior experience, relative price point and aggregated critics’ ratings:
(DISCLAIMER - this is a simple list that expressed my own views and should not be construed as expert buying advice!! Buyer beware!!!! :). All amounts below are expressed in Canadian dollars)
2021 Chateau Haut-Bages Liberal - $69 (Paulliac, Fifth Growth)
2021 Chateau Haut-Batailley - $99 (Paulliac, Fifth Growth)
2021 Chateau Rauzan-Segla - $149 (Margaux, Second Growth)
2021 Chateau Ponet-Canet - $185 (Pauillac, Fifth Growth)
2021 Chateau Leoville-Barton - $139 (Saint-Julien)
2021 Chateau Phelan-Segur - $77 (Saint-Estephe)
Whether now or later, I do hope to try these and other 2021 Bordeaux wines and uncover for myself what this vintage was really about. Something tells me it will be more thrilling than people are giving it credit for right now….but let’s see!
If you do participate in buying 2021 Futures this year, good luck getting that which you prize! And don’t forget to drop me a line and tell me all about it! xo
Wishing you love, peace and light,
Cheers!
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